By S. Flugge

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This paperback variation is a reprint of the 1991 version. Time sequence: thought and strategies is a scientific account of linear time sequence types and their program to the modeling and prediction of knowledge gathered sequentially in time. the purpose is to supply particular innovations for dealing with information and whilst to supply a radical knowing of the mathematical foundation for the innovations.

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Guallar, E. and Coresh, J. (2003) Transition models for change-point estimation in logistic regression. Statistics in Medicine, 22, 1141–1162. Rannala, B. (2002) Identifiability of parameters in MCMC Bayesian inference of phylogeny. Systematic Biology, 51, 754–760. Robert, C. (1996) Mixtures of distributions: inference and estimation. , Richardson, S. and Spiegelhalter, D. (eds). Chapman and Hall: London, 441–464. Roberts, C. (1996) Markov chain concepts related to sampling algorithms. , Richardson, S.

Instead of approximating the marginal likelihood of each model the goal is to estimate the Bayes factor as a ratio of normalizing constants. Denote the alternative models as m ¼ 0 and m ¼ 1. From the relation PðjYÞ ¼ PðY; Þ=PðYÞ where PðY; Þ ¼ PðYjÞP(), one may obtain for a metric variable s PðjY; sÞ ¼ PðY; jsÞ=PðYjsÞ ð2:5Þ In particular, define s as a path parameter s 2 ½0; 1Š linking the two models. For example, suppose the alternative models were Model 0 : Model 1 : yi ¼ þ xi 1 þ "i yi ¼ þ wi 2 þ "i ð2:6Þ ð2:7Þ The models m ¼ 0 and m ¼ 1 at s ¼ 0 and s ¼ 1 are linked by the models m ¼ s (s taking values between 0 and 1) defined by Model s : yi ¼ þ ð1 À sÞxi 1 þ swi 2 þ "i ð2:8Þ Let ZðsÞ ¼ PðYjm ¼ sÞ, and in particular Zð1Þ ¼ PðYjm ¼ 1Þ and Zð0Þ ¼ PðYjm ¼ 0Þ.

Ji denote the level 1 units (observations) nested within each cluster. Then random effects may be defined at both cluster and observation level. , 1997; Daniels and Gatsonis, 1999). 9 DATA AUGMENTATION Data augmentation via latent or auxiliary variables is a strategy used to convert the likelihood to a form (such as the normal linear regression) for which simple Gibbs sampling can be used. , 1999; van Dyk and Meng, 2001; van Dyk, 2002). It is used to simplify sampling in discrete mixture models (Chapter 5), and also forms the basis for missing-data models (Chapter 11).

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