By Reidar B. Bratvold
Determination making and uncertainty within the exploration and creation ? the right way to make strong judgements ? Quantifying uncertainty ? Monte Carlo simulation ? Structuring and fixing determination difficulties ? developing price from uncertainty ? Behavioral demanding situations in choice making
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Keeney and Raiffa (1993) listed the following five criteria for checking: 1. Completeness: No significant issues of concern are missing. 2. Operationality: Objectives are clear enough to be able to assess the alternatives. 3. Decomposability (independence): Performance of an alternative on one objective can be judged independently of other attributes. ) 4. No redundancy: No objective is a rephrasing of another; otherwise, it can lead to excess weighting. 5. Minimum size: Do not subdivide more than necessary for operationality and decomposability, and remove objectives incapable of distinguishing between alternatives.
Although this book is not a detailed implementation, or a “how-to” guide, we briefly describe the benefits of using spreadsheets as a simple means to implement and document the methodology. Apart from being able to conduct numerical calculations, a well-commented spreadsheet is valuable because it provides a concise, auditable record of why a particular decision was made—in the context of the analysis, factors, and information considered. , the outcome or revision of what was known and considered at the time).
Perhaps the most important tool is an open and imaginative mind. A good first step is to simply create lists of the main decisions, objectives, and uncertainties. 1 helps to provide focus on the immediate decisions through avoiding distraction by later operational decisions or policy decisions already made. Decision trees and influence diagrams clarify the relationships between the main decision elements, although both tools have uses beyond structuring. A full discussion of decision trees can be found in Chapter 5, with additional applications in Chapter 6.
Making Good Decisions by Reidar B. Bratvold
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