By Glenn Shafer

ISBN-10: 026219368X

ISBN-13: 9780262193689

Within the paintings of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a brand new mathematical and philosophical starting place for likelihood and makes use of it to give an explanation for thoughts of causality utilized in records, man made intelligence, and philosophy.The a number of disciplines that use causal reasoning vary within the relative weight they wear safety and precision of information in place of timeliness of motion. The typical and social sciences search excessive degrees of sure bet within the id of explanations and excessive degrees of precision within the dimension in their results. the sensible sciences--medicine, enterprise, engineering, and synthetic intelligence--must act on causal conjectures in keeping with extra restricted wisdom. Shafer's knowing of causality contributes to either one of those makes use of of causal reasoning. His language for causal clarification can consultant statistical research within the ordinary and social sciences, and it will probably even be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity wanted for determination making within the sensible sciences.Causal rules permeate using likelihood and records in all branches of undefined, trade, govt, and technology. The paintings of Causal Conjecture indicates that causal rules could be both vital in conception. It doesn't problem the maxim that causation can't be confirmed from data on my own, yet via bringing causal rules into the principles of likelihood, it permits causal conjectures to be extra in actual fact quantified, debated, and faced by way of statistical facts.

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In this section, we look at how this ordering engenders an ordering for Moivrean events. When a Moivrean event E contains a situation S, we say E is certain in S. ) When EnS = 0 , we say E is impossible 36 The situational tree: situations connected by simple Humean events. Experiments (nonterminal situations) and simple Humean events (steps). s T ** ** The Humean tree: simple Humean events connected by experiments. 3 + W *Q* // /S . \ "- . T "- ** ** A situational tree and the corresponding Humean tree.

6. Thi s term goes back to Thomas Bayes's famous essay, published posthumously in l764 and reprinted by Pearson and Kendall (1970). For a discussion of how Bayes's language and arguments can be understood in terms of event trees, see Shafer (1982). 43 Event Trees Although it is sometimes useful, it is not as basic as it might first appear; as we will see in Chapter 13, we can refine event trees by interpolating more detailed situations along some branches but not others, and this changes the way situa­ tions are grouped to form the cuts in the standard filter.

Here, as in the Pascal programming language, the colon signals that the equation is a definition. We are defining the left-hand side of the equation by setting it equal to the right-hand side. 6 up heads An event tree for three spins of a fair coin. If Ei is the event the ith spin comes (E1 := {a,b,c,d}, E2:= {a,b,e,f}, and E3:= {a,c,e,g}), then E1, E2, E3 is a sequence of subsequent Moivrean events. quasi ordering (again, see Appendix C). It is not a partial ordering, because it is not antisymmetric.

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The Art of Causal Conjecture by Glenn Shafer


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